The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dipped to -0.13 in September from +0.05 in August. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made a negative contribution in September, and one category deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.25 in September from +0.38 in August.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to +0.22 in September from +0.20 in August. Forty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 42 made negative contributions. Thirty-five indicators improved from August to September, while 49 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.37 to the CFNAI in September, down from –0.08 in August. Industrial production fell 1.3 percent in September after decreasing 0.1 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.07 in September from +0.01 in August.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.16 to the CFNAI in September, up from +0.09 in August. The unemployment rate decreased 0.4 percentage points in September after edging down 0.2 percentage points in August, but nonfarm payrolls increased by 194,000 in September after rising by 366,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.02 in September.
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