Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.29 in May from –0.09 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in May while three categories improved from April.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +0.81 in May from +0.17 in April.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.39 in May from +0.16 in April. Fifty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May while 30 made negative contributions. Fifty-seven indicators improved from April to May, while 27 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 15 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.29 to the CFNAI in May, up from –0.05 in April. Industrial production rose 0.8% in May after moving up 0.1% in April. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI increased to +0.02 in May from –0.06 in April.
The personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.18 to the CFNAI in May, down from –0.04 in April. The personal consumption indicators in this category broadly deteriorated, while the housing indicators generally improved from April.
The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI increased to +0.16 in May from +0.06 in April. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in May after increasing by 278,000 in April while the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points in May.
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